Two updated scenarios proposed for the Vietnamese economy until the end of the year


The Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) revised two scenarios for the Vietnamese economy by the end of the year, with expected growth in the GDP rate of 5.9% and 6.2%, respectively.

Vietnam’s economy is expected to grow by around 6% this year if the COVID-19 outbreak is brought under control by the end of the third quarter.

These figures were unveiled during an online workshop hosted virtually by ICES and the Australia-funded Vietnam Economic Reform Program (Aus4Reform) to discuss the Vietnamese economy and its recovery efforts.

In its report released earlier this year, ICES said the Vietnamese economy is expected to post a strong recovery as it gets back on track after being hit hard by COVID-19 outbreaks last year.

However, the latest resurgence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, especially the complicated developments caused by the new epidemics, has posed a series of challenges for the national economy, prompting ICES researchers to revise their scenarios.

In the first updated scenario, the most recent outbreak would be brought under control by October to pave the way for production and business operations to return to normal.

The second updated scenario would see the latest outbreak brought under control by August, associated with the recovery of the global economy and high growth rates in bank credit and public investment disbursements.

Compared to the two scenarios, the national economy is expected to grow by 5.9% and 6.2%, respectively.

Exports this year are expected to increase by 16.4% in the first scenario and 18.3% in the second scenario, while the country’s trade surplus is estimated at $ 4.2 billion and $ 5.4 billion. , respectively. In addition, the average inflation this year is expected to reach 2.6% and 2.8%, accordingly.

In particular, the ICES report produces a number of assessments and policy guidance regarding local migration from a gender perspective. Indeed, economic restructuring has taken place rapidly to bring about changes in the structure of the workforce and an increase in the movement of labor from rural to urban areas.

The report also proposes several policies aimed at integrating gender factors into economic restructuring, emphasizing the need to modernize infrastructure in the localities from which migrant workers come and in the localities from which they leave.

Source: VOV

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